It is the angled brackets. You need to turn off angle matching in your file settings. I suspect it is trying to match the angled brackets and realizes they are not valid and then tries to match the the next outerset. There must be a bug in the algorithm that is throwing off the matching of the round brackets.
With that said, I also noticed a situation such as:
Sublime Text cannot match the outer round brackets when coming from the right side. I assume this is because the algorithm is giving priority to the open square bracket. I do not think open brackets should take precedence. I think is should be more consistent, like if between two outside edges of brackets, default to left; it is more uniform and predictable and would avoid odd scenarios like this.